CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, DISPOSSESSION AND DISPLACEMENT (CiCADD)

Co-Constructing Solution Pathways with Coastal Vulnerable Groups in Northern Mindanao, Philippines

Summary

With funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and facilitated through the New Frontiers in Research Fund (NFRF), Cagayan de Oro in Northern Mindanao, Philippines, was selected as a case study to examine how climate change adaptation, dispossession, and displacement interact, and whether these processes ultimately strengthen or undermine the adaptive capacities of communities affected by major climate-related disasters. The study focuses on understanding whether adaptation interventions reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience, particularly among populations already exposed to recurring climate and disaster risks. Cagayan de Oro provides a relevant context for this inquiry. It is a coastal, highly urbanised city that functions as both the provincial capital of Misamis Oriental and the regional centre of Northern Mindanao. The city covers 412.80 square kilometres and had a population of 728,402 in the 2020 Census, representing about 14.5% of the region’s population. With an economy valued at PHP 220 billion in 2020 and projections that Metro Cagayan de Oro will become the country’s fourth metropolitan centre by 2025, the city continues to expand rapidly. However, its dense urban development and growing economic activities also expose it to multiple hazards, particularly flooding and landslides.

The research centres on the Flood Risk Management Project for the Cagayan de Oro River (FRIMP-CDOR), a large-scale infrastructure intervention involving dike construction, river easements, and the relocation of thousands of households from riverbank settlements. The project was implemented through collaboration between a multinational donor (JICA), national agencies such as the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and the National Housing Authority (NHA), the Cagayan de Oro city government, and affected communities. The city’s selection is also shaped by the legacy of Typhoon Sendong (Washi) in December 2011, which caused extensive loss of life and displacement and led to the establishment of relocation sites such as Lumbia, Macapaya, and Pahiron. Within this context, the CiCADD research examines the unintended consequences of adaptation interventions, including how they may produce new forms of dispossession and displacement. The study asks how adaptation programmes shape gendered and intersectional vulnerabilities, what social and political factors influence these outcomes, and how the impacts of relocation and adaptation measures can be meaningfully assessed.

Introduction

With funding provided by the UK ESRC and facilitated by the New Frontiers in Research Fund (NFRF), Cagayan de Oro in Northern Mindanao, the Philippines, serves as a case study site to understand how adaptation, dispossession, and displacement interact in a way that enhances, or does not enhance, the adaptive capacities of communities that have faced major climate-related disasters, build their resilience, and reduce their vulnerabilities to future climate and disaster risks.

Cagayan de Oro is a coastal, highly urbanised city in Northern Mindanao that functions as both the provincial capital of Misamis Oriental and the regional centre of Region 10. The city spans 412.80 square kilometres and had a population of 728,402 according to the 2020 Census, accounting for approximately 14.5% of the region’s total population. By 2025, Metro Cagayan de Oro is forecasted to become the country’s fourth metropolitan centre, with Cagayan de Oro City at its centre and an economy valued at PHP 220 billion in 2020 (in constant 2018 prices). The metropolitan area encompasses 13 local government units under the Sustainable Urban Infrastructure Development (SUID) Metro CDO masterplan, covering cities and municipalities in Misamis Oriental and Bukidnon, with several nearby municipalities being considered for future inclusion due to growing economic and resource connections. Simultaneously, the city’s dense urban development and expanding economic activities leave it vulnerable to various hazards, especially flooding and landslides, as evidenced by relocation sites such as Macapaya in Barangay Camaman-an and by flood protection initiatives such as the Flood Risk Management of the Cagayan de Oro River (FRIMP-CDOR). Across Northern Mindanao, hazards such as floods, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic risks remain significant, and recent events like Super Typhoon Odette (2021) and the 2022–2023 shear line have underscored ongoing vulnerability, worsened by delays in executing major flood control projects in river systems affecting Cagayan de Oro, Iligan, and Tagoloan.

Cagayan de Oro was chosen as a study site because of the scope and ambition of FRIMP-CDOR. The project demonstrates a major infrastructure adaptation effort to combat flooding, involving large loans, extensive dike construction, river easements, and the relocation of thousands of households. Now that the project has been completed, it provides an opportunity to assess whether such measures have truly reduced the vulnerabilities of affected communities. The project also highlights the complex politics involved in large infrastructure initiatives, uniting a multinational donor (JICA), national implementing agencies (DPWH and NHA), the Cagayan de Oro city government, and local communities, while also being influenced by pressures from powerful private interests that necessitated redesigns to protect certain properties.

The context is crucial: the city was devastated by Typhoon Sendong (Washi) in December 2011, resulting in 1,292 deaths, 1,049 people reported missing, 2,002 injured, and nearly 700,000 residents affected. In response, relocation sites such as Lumbia, Macapaya, and Pahiron were established for households displaced from settlements along the Cagayan de Oro River, while infrastructure, such as the megadike, was built across several barangays. These developments make Cagayan de Oro a key case for examining the intersections of flood control, resettlement, dispossession, and adaptation. The city’s dense urban growth and expanding economy also mean it remains highly vulnerable to multiple hazards, especially flooding and landslides, within a region that regularly faces extreme events such as Super Typhoon Odette in 2021 and the shear line of December 2022–January 2023, even as delays in major flood control initiatives continue to contribute to recurrent urban flooding.

Methodology

The key research questions pursued by CiCADD are:

1. What are the unintended consequences of climate change adaptation interventions in the Philippines?

2. How do climate change adaptation programs contribute to gendered/intersectional processes of dispossession and displacement?

3. What intersectional factors can explain how adaptation practices, actions, and their outcomes emerge in each site?

4. How do we assess or evaluate these consequences of displacement and dispossession?

These questions are investigated using a set of methods comprising key informant interviews, focus group discussions, transect walks, stakeholder consultations, mapping, and surveys.

Adaptation strategies

From an adaptation perspective, FRIMP-CDOR primarily relies on hard infrastructure and risk-avoidance strategies—such as engineering solutions combined with relocation and zoning—to reduce flood exposure. The effectiveness of these measures depends not only on hydraulic performance but also on social outcomes of relocation, livelihood access, and governance processes, which are central to research on adaptation, dispossession, and displacement.

The Flood Risk Management Project for the Cagayande Oro River is a large-scale flood management programme designed to reduce flood risks in Cagayan de Oro following the devastation caused by Typhoon Sendong (Washi). The project combines structural flood control infrastructure with land-use regulation and resettlement measures. The main adaptation strategies can be grouped into four core components.

1. River dike and flood control infrastructure

The central strategy is the construction of continuous flood protection dikes and revetments along the Cagayan de Oro River.

Key elements include:

• Reinforced river dikes and floodwalls along both banks
• Riverbank protection structures, such as revetments and slope stabilisation
• Channel improvement and widening to increase river discharge capacity
• Protection designed to withstand large flood events.

This infrastructure aims to reduce the probability of catastrophic river overflow during extreme rainfall events.

2. River easement and risk zoning

A second adaptation strategy is to clear and enforce river easements along the river corridor.

Measures include:

• Removal of informal settlements and structures located within the flood-prone riverbanks
• Establishment of regulated setback zones to prevent future settlement in high-risk areas
• Conversion of cleared areas into buffer zones or maintenance corridors.

The intention is to reduce exposure to flood hazards by preventing habitation in high-risk zones.

3. Resettlement of at-risk households

The project includes relocating thousands of households that previously lived along the river to key relocation sites, including Lumbia, Macapaya, and Pahiron, on the outskirts of Cagayan de Oro City.

These sites were developed by the National Housing Authority with support from the Department of Public Works and Highways and financing from the Japan International Cooperation Agency. The objective is to remove populations from high-risk flood zones while providing safer housing areas.

4. Institutional coordination and flood management planning

The project also involves multi-level governance arrangements, linking:

• national implementing agencies
• the city government of Cagayan de Oro
• donor institutions
• local communities.

This component aims to strengthen flood management planning, land-use enforcement, and long-term river management.

Initial Findings from Surveys

• Most survey respondents (97.3%) agreed that the construction of the mega-dike along the Cagayan de Oro River reduced flood risk in their barangays of origin.

• However, almost half (45.5%) also reported being affected by higher costs of living due to the mega-dike. Overall, nearly half (46.4%) of the survey respondents rated the negative impacts of the dike’s construction as “moderate.” Nevertheless, a large majority (89.6%) stated that relocation has been effective in addressing the climate risks they faced in their original barangays.

• The vast majority (95.5%) of survey respondents stated that relocation is a long-term solution to climate risks. However, less than half (33.4%) of them believed that relocatees positively benefited from the mega-dike construction itself.  

• During the first year after relocation, many households faced immediate adjustment challenges. Nearly 40% of respondents reported difficulties, including a lack of household water services, problems accessing safe drinking water, and the absence of electricity connections. About 26.1% also reported limited livelihood opportunities and the distance from their workplaces as major challenges, while 19.4% pointed to the burden of high transport costs.

• After one year in the relocation site, some of these challenges remain. High transport costs or limited transport options were identified by 30.5% of respondents, while 24.5% continued to experience problems with water services. Access to services also requires travel for many households. Although most respondents reported that health facilities, schools, and markets exist within their barangay, large proportions still need to commute to reach them. At the same time, the difficulty of finding stable work decreased, with 14.5% still reporting it as a major challenge.

• Households also continue to face broader livelihood and social pressures. Slightly over 10% of respondents said their households were very much affected by food shortages. Many also reported limited financial security: 47.7% said they have only a small amount of financial resources for emergencies, and 32.9% reported having none at all. Community support during emergencies was described by most respondents as only slightly or moderately available. While 78.4% reported receiving training or support for climate-resilient livelihoods, only 36.9% said that local institutions provide the information and services needed to help them adapt. Financial assistance or loans were identified by 40.1% as the support they most need to improve their livelihoods.

• Almost all respondents (99.5%) reported that their community holds meetings to discuss key challenges. However, less than half (44.6%) said that their main contribution to community problem-solving is through joining or volunteering in community work. A large majority (85.6%) stated that they feel included in their current barangay, and 81.1% reported feeling safe and supported when raising concerns about the mega-dike construction or their relocation. At the same time, participation in community activities remains limited for many. Slightly less than half (48.6%) reported only slight participation in community activities over the past 12 months, and 44.6% reported only slight participation in community planning and decision-making.

• More than half of respondents (51.8%) said they or their households were moderately involved in planning and decision-making related to their relocation, while 26.1% said they were only slightly involved. When it comes to being heard in local governance, 35.1% reported that their concerns are only slightly heard, and 34.7% felt they are only moderately heard. Awareness of public service activities is high, with almost 92.0% of respondents reporting knowledge of ongoing public works in the relocation site, most commonly garbage collection and related services (58.6%). However, more than half (61.3%) said that only a few of the development promises made during relocation—such as jobs, housing, education, and services—have been fulfilled. Respondents most often identified barangay officials and civil society or community organisations (both at 28.4%) as leading efforts in climate change adaptation in their communities.

Partners

CiCADD’s case study in the Philippines is funded by the UK ESRC and implemented by the University of Glasgow, the Research Institute for Mindanao Culture (RIMCU), and the Stockholm Environment Institute. CiCADD also involve case studies in Ghana and the Indian Sundarbans. York University in Canada is the overall lead of CiCADD.